From CeRSP Research Associate James Downes

Brief Analysis: Main Take-Away Points (2024 UK General Election):

  1. The single biggest reason for Labour’s huge majority is likely Reform UK splitting the Conservative Vote (Right-Wing Vote) + likely the unique effects of Britain’s First-Past-The- Post (FPTP) Electoral System.
  2. The Liberal Democrats performed extremely well and paradoxically benefited from the FPTP Electoral system! (The UK Reform Party came in second place/in around 98 Seats splitting/fragmenting the vote shares of both the Conservative Party & to a lesser extent the Labour Party).
  3. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has suffered a huge collapse in Scotland. This is likely due to their recent negative anti-incumbency record alongside their internal party struggles (Sturgeon et al saga). The Labour Party is now the sole Unionist Party in Scotland.
  4. Volatility:
    1. Political parties across the UK need to take care of their core voters & not take them for granted.
    2. Voters are now increasingly volatile in UK politics and are much more willing to switch parties than they have ever been before.
  5. The Future of the Reform UK Party & Nigel Farage:
  6. There are two strategies relating to the future of the Reform UK Party & Nigel Farage.
    1. Rebrand the party and push for wider electoral reform (via a Proportional Representation Style system) OR
    2. (b) Attempt to capture and shape (i.e., take over) the future of the Conservative Party. However, the second strategy is currently unlikely, at least in the short-term for the Reform UK Party.