From CeRSP Research Associate James Downes
Brief Analysis: Main Take-Away Points (2024 UK General Election):
- The single biggest reason for Labour’s huge majority is likely Reform UK splitting the Conservative Vote (Right-Wing Vote) + likely the unique effects of Britain’s First-Past-The- Post (FPTP) Electoral System.
- The Liberal Democrats performed extremely well and paradoxically benefited from the FPTP Electoral system! (The UK Reform Party came in second place/in around 98 Seats splitting/fragmenting the vote shares of both the Conservative Party & to a lesser extent the Labour Party).
- The Scottish National Party (SNP) has suffered a huge collapse in Scotland. This is likely due to their recent negative anti-incumbency record alongside their internal party struggles (Sturgeon et al saga). The Labour Party is now the sole Unionist Party in Scotland.
- Volatility:
- Political parties across the UK need to take care of their core voters & not take them for granted.
- Voters are now increasingly volatile in UK politics and are much more willing to switch parties than they have ever been before.
- The Future of the Reform UK Party & Nigel Farage:
- There are two strategies relating to the future of the Reform UK Party & Nigel Farage.
- Rebrand the party and push for wider electoral reform (via a Proportional Representation Style system) OR
- (b) Attempt to capture and shape (i.e., take over) the future of the Conservative Party. However, the second strategy is currently unlikely, at least in the short-term for the Reform UK Party.