From CeRSP Research Associate: James Downes
What happened at the 2024 French National Parliamentary Election?
France’s Left-Wing New Popular Front Coalition unexpectedly halted a far-right advance for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and gained the greatest number of seats at the 2024 French national parliamentary election.
The big ‘winner’ (relative levels of electoral success) in the French National Assembly from the National Parliamentary Elections is still Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally Party. However, her party will be blocked out of governing in the French National Assembly. The National Rally Party performed less well than expected. However, National Rally are down and not out.
The National Rally’s support is likely to keep rising in the polls, especially if the next Coalition Government is unstable. Marine Le Pen still stands a good chance to be a strong contender at the 2027 French Presidential Elections (with Macron not able to run again, due to having served his two term limit). However, the New Popular Front Coalition fell short of an absolute majority in the French National Assembly (Parliament).
Short-Term Outcome:
French politics would be likely stuck in policy gridlock due to no overall control in the French National Assembly.
Next Steps:
Some experts predict that Macron’s Ensemble alliance of centrist parties may try to form a coalition with the Socialists and the Greens, the more moderate parties within the left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front rather than attempt any coalition/partnership with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed party.
However, they will probably have no working majority in the Parliament, thereby giving rise to more gridlock and the impossibility of passing any clear policies into law. If this happens, there could then even be another sudden French National Parliamentary Election on the horizon!
One remaining problem is that Macron views Mélenchon as being far too left-wing (radical left) and a threat to his economic policies/even his political legacy, such as the recent pension reforms in France. Going forward, polarization and fragmentation in French politics is likely to become even worse.