Working Papers

CeRSP Working Papers Series

CeRSP Working Papers Series: WP15/01: Binelli, Chiara “Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy

Abstract: Using a unique dataset on subjective probabilities of employment and earnings expectations for a nationally representative sample of jobless young skilled Italian, this paper proposes new measures of job instability, job insecurity and earnings risk, and assesses their impact on choices and behaviors. Jobless young Italian University graduates face substantial job instability, insecurity and risk, which have large negative effects on job search, engagement with the democratic political process, fertility choices, life satisfaction and wellbeing.

Key Words: Job instability and insecurity; Earnings risk; Subjective expectations; Youth unemployment.

JEL Codes: J31; J62; D84.

CeRSP Working Papers Series: WP15/02: Loveless, Matthew and Chiara Binelli. “Explaining Individuals’ Perceptions of National-level Income Inequality in the United Kingdom

Abstract: For the first time the 2014 British Election Study asked respondents to identify any change in the difference in incomes in the UK over the past twenty years. Just over three-quarters of the respondents correctly identified an increase in this difference. Here, we draw from the existing – if limited – literature to develop a framework for understanding what drives individuals’ perceptions of national-level income inequality. We find that UK respondents with higher political knowledge and left-leaning ideological self-identification are more likely to identify this increase in inequality. At the same time, these same respondents were more likely to report a large (vs. small) increase. As a possible explanation, we show that respondents’ coherent normative orientations to inequality appear to magnify ideological differences. This suggests that while ideology may provide a broad organizing schema for individuals’ perceptions of macro-economic phenomena, normative orientations may have a significant intervening role.

CeRSP Working Papers Series: WP17/01: Loveless, Matthew and Chiara Binelli. “Expectations of Future Economic Security and National System Support: Evidence from Italy

Abstract: Using original, nationally representative data on young jobless Italian university graduates, we assess the effect of individuals’ expectations on future job prospects in different scenarios on their satisfaction with democracy. Using innovative measures of individuals’ expectations about job security, stability and future earnings as well as administrative data to control for province-level economic context, we find that those expecting increased job insecurity, instability, and earning risk have lower satisfaction with democracy. This provides an important contribution to understanding system support by meaningfully conceptualizing and operationalizing individuals’ future economic expectations as a determinant of individuals’ support for national governance. At the same time, these findings bode poorly for many European countries as the long-term effects of high levels of unemployment among the young appear to be potentially delegitimizing.

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