Working Papers

CeRSP Working Papers Series

CeRSP Working Paper 15/01: Misperceptions of Macro-Economic Context: Income Inequality in the United States and the United Kingdom. 
Matthew Loveless and Chiara Binelli

Abstract: For the first time, the British Election Study internet panel replicated questions from the American National Election Studies about citizens’ perceptions of national-level income inequality. Using this unique data opportunity, we draw together the literature on macro-economic perceptions to build a comprehensive model to compare the origins of citizens’ perceptions –and misperceptions -of national-level income inequality in each country. Despite expected performances by several of the individual-level determinants, perceptions appear to be more highly politicized in the UK than the US. That is, they are highly correlated with ideology, strong partisan identification, and specific media choices. Also in the UK, we find (negative) normative orientations to inequality to be a powerful predictor of misperceptions. By contrast, in the US, perceptions of national-level income inequality appear to rely more heavily on individuals’ political and economic performance evaluations and much less so on elite or media cues.


CeRSP Working Paper 15/02: Employment and Earnings Expectations of Jobless Young Skilled: Evidence from Italy
Chiara Binelli

Abstract: Using a unique dataset on subjective probabilities of employment and earnings expectations for a nationally representative sample of jobless young skilled Italian, this paper proposes new measures of job instability, job insecurity and earnings risk, and assesses their impact on choices and behaviors. Jobless young Italian University graduates face substantial job instability, insecurity and risk, which have large negative effects on job search, engagement with the democratic political process, fertility choices, life satisfaction and wellbeing.

KeyWords: Job instability and insecurity; Earnings risk; Subjective expectations; Youth unemployment

JEL Codes: J31; J62; D84

CeRSP Working Paper 17/01: Expectations of Future Economic Security and National System Support
Matthew Loveless and Chiara Binelli

Abstract: Using original, nationally representative data on young jobless Italian university graduates, we assess the effect of individuals’ expectations on job security, stability and future earnings on satisfaction with democracy. Using administrative data to control for province-level economic context, we find that those expecting increased job insecurity and instability have lower satisfaction with democracy. This provides an important contribution to understanding system support by meaningfully conceptualizing and operationalizing individuals’ future economic expectations as a determinant of support for national governance. At the same time, these findings bode poorly for many European countries as the long-term effects of high levels of unemployment among the young appear to be potentially delegitimizing.

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