About CERSP

The Center for Explanatory Research and Scientific Prediction (CERSP) is a U.S.-based nonprofit research lab advancing a better understanding of uncertainty in order to strengthen democratic futures. CERSP is an independent center dedicated to pioneering the systematic study of how prediction and explanation can be combined to re-strengthen democracy and society.

|The Challenge: To make decisions, we need to be able to make predictions. But we have no framework to accurately predict under uncertainty. We need to reshape the theoretical basis of prediction to build models and systems that can predict and explain in a fast-changing world.

|The Solution: Foundational theoretical architecture – Based on causal explanatory models, predictive data science, counterfactual reasoning, and data source quality.

CERSP takes the future seriously by:

  • Developing tools to explain under uncertainty

  • Merging social science frameworks with predictive models

  • Rethinking explanation vs. prediction in social science

  • Strengthening democracy in the age of AI

It is transformative. It is revolutionary. It is how we design decision-making.

CERSP combines social science and machine learning to build better explanations of how society changes - and better predictions of what comes next.

An explanation of the past is not automatically a reliable guide to the future. Nor does an accurate prediction necessarily tell us why something happens. CERSP brings these two forms of knowledge together through Predict-to-Explain: a research framework that uses theories about how society works to guide prediction, and predictive evidence to challenge and improve those theories.

We develop and test this framework through research on democracy and the social and economic consequences of artificial intelligence. Our goal is to give researchers and decision-makers practical methods for understanding change, anticipating possible outcomes, and recognizing the limits of what the evidence can tell them.

Long Term Vision

black blue and yellow textile
black blue and yellow textile

Prediction is reshaping science, business, and democracy, but we lack a dedicated center to study how people imagine and act on the future. CERSP will pioneer this field, combining rigorous social science, machine learning, and democratic engagement.

We seek Founding Partners to invest in a new way of using theory and data to inform collective decision-making. This CERSP team will also include data scientists, computer scientists, engineers, and support staff.

Today, we are looking for Founding Partners in building CERSP – a role with high visibility and long-term impact. Funders who join us at this stage will be investing not only in a new center, but in a new way of doing social science at a moment when prediction and uncertainty are reshaping every field.

Impact:

  • Applied Prediction Projects: Partnerships with governments, NGOs, and businesses to test prediction in practice.

  • Research & Publishing: Books, articles, and public talks that reframe explanation vs. prediction in social science.

  • Talent Pipeline: Training postdocs and early-career data scientists to work at the intersection of theory and application.

Empirical inquiry serves democratic stability only when methodology is transparent, appropriate, and remain entirely reproducible.