Center for Explanatory Research and Scientific Prediction – CERSP

An explanation of the past is not automatically a reliable guide to the future. Nor does an accurate prediction necessarily tell us why something happens. CERSP brings these two forms of knowledge together through Predict-to-Explain: a research framework that uses theories about how society works to guide prediction, and predictive evidence to challenge and improve those theories. 

We develop and test this framework through research on democracy and the social and economic consequences of artificial intelligence. Our goal is to give researchers and decision-makers practical methods for understanding change, anticipating possible outcomes, and recognizing the limits of what the evidence can tell them.