Mission
CERSP understands how innovations in AI and machine learning merge with traditional quantitative methods to support and re-strengthen democracy. Developing a new science of human foresight to support and re-strengthen democracy, our goal is to re-imagine how new practices can be implemented to shape more reliable and valid evidence. This is relevant to our policy, debate, and a better understanding of the world in which we live.
CERSP Leadership
Chiara Binelli, Ph.D.
Co-Founder and Programs Director
Dr. Binelli oversees CERSP’s methodological and interdisciplinary research agenda. Her work focuses on the foundations of explanatory and predictive social science, with leadership over the following programs:
· Predict to Explain
· YAI?
· Women of Social Sciences in Data Science (WINDS)
Matthew Loveless, Ph.D.
Co-Founder and Programs Director
Dr. Loveless leads CERSP’s research on democracy, political behavior, and future-oriented governance. His programmatic responsibilities include:
· Predict to Explain
· Democracy in the Future
James F. Downes, Ph.D.
Europe-Asia Programs Director
Dr. Downes directs CERSP’s Europe–Asia research initiatives, with a focus on global politics, international relations and public policy. His programmatic responsibilities include:
· EU-China Relations
· Global and Far-Right Populism & Immigration in Europe
About CERSP
About: The Center for Explanatory Research and Scientific Prediction (CERSP) is a U.S.-based nonprofit think tank advancing a new science of human foresight to understand how expectations and uncertainty can better be understood in order to strengthen democratic futures. CERSP is an independent research center dedicated to pioneering the systematic study of how prediction and our understanding of the future can reshape democracy, policy, and society.
CERSP takes the future seriously by:
· Developing tools to anticipate risk under uncertainty
· Integrating human expectations into predictive and democratic models
· Rethinking explanation vs. prediction in social science
· Strengthening democracy in an age of AI
Compliance Information
The Center for Explanatory Research and Scientific Prediction (CERSP) is a U.S.-based nonprofit think tank [501(c)(3)].
Long-term Vision
Prediction is reshaping science, business, and democracy, but we lack a dedicated center to study how people imagine and act on the future. CERSP will pioneer this field, combining rigorous social science, machine learning, and democratic engagement.
We are seeking catalytic funding of $5,000,000 over 5 years to establish CERSP as a nimble, independent think tank. This support will sustain three senior researchers (political scientists and economist), core operations, and early pilot projects. With this foundation, we will leverage additional grants, partnerships, and earned income to build a lasting institution.
Today, we are looking for Founding Partners in building CERSP – a role with high visibility and long-term impact. Funders who join us at this stage will be investing not only in a new center, but in a new way of doing social science at a moment when prediction and uncertainty are reshaping every field. Your support makes you a Founding Partner in CERSP, enabling the first phase while helping us unlock additional investment from major foundations and individual donors to ensure long-term sustainability.
Methods and Impact:
- Applied Prediction Projects: Partnerships with governments, NGOs, and businesses to test prediction in practice.
- Research & Publishing: Books, articles, and public talks that reframe explanation vs. prediction in social science.
- Talent Pipeline: Training postdocs and early-career data scientists to work at the intersection of theory and application.