Predict to Explain - PTE
A fundamental divide persists between Social Science, which prioritizes explanation and causal understanding, and Data Science, which emphasizes prediction and forecasting. Separately, each approach is limited – producing either explanations with uncertain predictive value, or predictions that lack interpretability and robustness under real-world policy change. What if the strengths of the explanatory and predictive approaches could be combined to enable research that is both scientifically rigorous and practically relevant for decision-makers?
Mission: To develop a framework combining the explanatory strengths of Social Science with the predictive capabilities of Data Science, improving how evidence is generated, evaluated, and used for theory development and decision-making. In this framework, explanation and prediction reinforce one another producing models that deepen our theoretical understanding of social processes and can forecast future outcomes. By integrating theory-driven explanation with data-driven prediction, Predict to Explain strengthens both scientific insight and real-world decision-making.
Team
Dr Chiara Binelli, PTE Program Director
Dr Matthew Loveless, PTE Senior Researcher
Amélie Benková, PTE Junior Researcher
What we do
Predict to Explain
Combining prediction with explanation can be used to develop better theories of human behavior and thus improve the very ability to explain reality, one of the primary goals of Social Science research. We propose a framework that embeds prediction into the research design and the empirical analysis to increase explanatory power and strengthen theory robustness. We provide an application of this framework to a published study of climate change perceptions in the United States.
Goals
- Identify and bridge the complementary research approaches of Social Science and Data Science.
- Evaluate and expand the scientific, explanatory quality of Social Science research.
- Develop and promote a combined framework for theory-development: Predict to Explain
- Explore the approach in the study of key questions in Social Science.
- Update core methodological thinking and implementation in the social sciences.
Target Audience
- Applied Social Science and Data Science researchers.
- Social Science and Data Science students.
- Researchers and professional practitioners in the fields of policy analysis, forecasting, decision-making, and socially oriented applications.
Your contribution supports:
- Research into cutting-edge methodological advances at the frontier of applied Social Science
- Collaborative research and real-world application to answer prediction and explanatory questions
- Improving our ability to understand society and to offer practical guidance for addressing real-world challenges.
- Improved capacity to respond to rapid social and political change
- Better forecasts that generalize across contexts and policy scenarios
Recent Blog Post

Welcome to the Predict to Explain blog
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